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Time series analysis
Author
Teo, Wil Ping
Supervisor
Cheang, Wai Kwon
Abstract
The main goals of time series analysis are to identify the nature of the dependence inherent in the sequence of observations and to perform forecasting based on the time series available. The forecasting applications have placed much importance in many areas like economics, business or even in natural sciences. However, both the goals require the pattern of the observed time series to be identified so that it would be possible to express the dependence into a theoretical mathematical expression such that one can interpret the results and extrapolate the pattern to predict future events.
The aim of this academic exercise is to study the basic concepts, the ARIMA models and the methods about time series analysis and then to put theory into practice by selecting an area of interest where the theories about time series analysis can be applied.
In this academic exercise, we will identify the seasonal ARIMA models for the Singapore Total Monthly Rainfall from January 1989 - December 1998 and to perform forecasting for the future rainfall values for the next 2 years, i.e. 1999 and 2000. We will also analyze and interpret the forecasting ability of our model by comparing the forecasted values with the actual rainfall data in 1999. The analysis on the case study will be performed using the statistical software package Minitab.
The aim of this academic exercise is to study the basic concepts, the ARIMA models and the methods about time series analysis and then to put theory into practice by selecting an area of interest where the theories about time series analysis can be applied.
In this academic exercise, we will identify the seasonal ARIMA models for the Singapore Total Monthly Rainfall from January 1989 - December 1998 and to perform forecasting for the future rainfall values for the next 2 years, i.e. 1999 and 2000. We will also analyze and interpret the forecasting ability of our model by comparing the forecasted values with the actual rainfall data in 1999. The analysis on the case study will be performed using the statistical software package Minitab.
Date Issued
2001
Call Number
QA280 Teo
Date Submitted
2001