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Modelling the spread of dengue in Singapore
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Ang, K. C., & Li, Z. (2000, December). Modelling the spread of dengue in Singapore. Paper presented at the Electronic Proceedings of the 5th Asian Technology Conference in Mathematics, Chiang Mai, Thailand.
We have developed a simulation model that describes the spread of dengue fever in
Singapore. The population of the host is divided into compartments representing
disease status (susceptible, exposed, infectious and resistant) whereas the population
of the vector is considered as a whole because it is difficult to determine the dengue
virus status in the vector. Larvae density is used as an index of the vector population.
In our model, the flow between compartments is described by a set of differential
equations and the change of vector is represented by means of a piece-wise function
over time. The resulting model is stochastic as well as deterministic. We took into
account the majority of factors that known to influence dengue epidemiology.
Compared with the deterministic model developed by Newton and Reiter (1992), our
model is more realistic and suitable to the local situation. This model also
demonstrates the successful use of Maple V, a commonly used computer algebra
system, in such modelling techniques.
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