Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)

The regional well-being of the Lower Mekong axis is heavily tied to the food and environmental security to which the Mekong River and its resources are an inalienable part. However, this will depend on whether the riparian countries pursue the path of non-cooperative zero-sum game of win-loss/loss-loss situations which perpetuate divergence of interests and engender conflict or pursue the path of cooperative plus-sum game that takes into account the collective interests of all riparian countries, thus, minimising conflicts. Owing to increasing competition concomitant with Mekong-based infrastructure development following the end of Indochina's ideological and border wars as well as the liberalisation of economies, there is increasing tension over transboundary impacts of such developments. Environmental protection experts and sustainable development advocates warn that, in the absence of adequate cooperative framework for conflict management, the countries that share the Mekong River risk being swept into a regional conflict.

This research seeks to identify and analyse the potential sources of environmental conflicts among the riparian countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in order to develop a model of transnational cooperation that can reflect and accommodate the different interest holders. To this end, five theories - the realist theory, the functional theory, the neo-functional theory, the regime theory, and the game theory complement each other to provide the theoretical bases for the conceptual framework of this study. A stakeholder survey was carried out to determine the major governmental stakeholders and NGOs in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. The analysis was based on 289 valid questionnaires administered to sampled government agencies and NGOs in the four countries. The research instruments were subjected to a four-group discriminant analysis, exploratory factor analysis and further to structural equation Modelling. The instruments were confirmed for convergent validity, discriminant validity, item reliability, and construct reliability. The research findings reveal that the drivers or model of transnational basin conflict for the Mekong is a six inter-correlated factor structure composed of divergence in riparian interests, ecological stress, inadequate design/poor observance of international water regime, unregulated water diversions/poorly planned dams, socio-political influences, and unsustainable competition for infrastructure development. "Divergence in riparians interests" was found to provide strong explanation for the difference in economic and environmental interests between upstream and downstream countries, differences on how some water resource issues involving water allocation are to be resolved and poor commitment to agreed principles on water resource use. Inadequate design/poor observance of international water regime" was found to have a significant influence and explanation for non or poor notification and consultation in planning and execution of major construction projects, and poor exchange of data and information among riparian countries, and inadequate stipulation of rules and rights of water resource uses.

It was also established that the drivers or model of transnational cooperation of the Mekong Basin is a four inter-correlated factor structure composed of effective and robust international water regime. proactive and responsive basin commission, effective policy of economic instruments and coordinated engagement of external interest holders. The test of factor-parameter relationships further reveals: that "effective and robust international water regime" had very strong and positive influence in encouraging the riparian countries to cooperate in the notification and consultation on water development projects, participation in data and information exchange, participation in the harmonization of water resource standards, participation in joint effort and investment in water resource monitoring; that "Proactive and responsive basin commission" was strongly related with the MRC's technical and administrative capacity to monitor compliance; adequacy of data and information MRC has for exchange among member countries; and the National Mekong Committees' technical and administrative capacity; that coordinated framework of engagement with the external interest holders provides strong explanation or encouragement for the ADB-Greater Mekong Sub-region, the donor countries and the ASEAN-Mekong Development Cooperation to streamline their activities and programmes with the Mekong River Commission programmes.

Against these findings recommendations were made. Given that environmental conflict in the basin is still within the ambit of tension and thus, has not degenerated into formal or open conflict, the model of transnational cooperation was therefore posited to form the basis for policy intervention in pre-emptive and preventive environmental conflict management in the Mekong Basin. And it is the submission of this research that a pre-emptive and preventive environmental policy direction for the Mekong basin is timely and cheaper than to delay for a reactive environmental conflict management and resolution that characterize open conflict.