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The characterization, mechanism, predictability, and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 Southeast Asia heatwave
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Type
Article
Citation
Lyu, Y., Wang, J., Zhi, X., Wang, X., Zhang, H., Wen, Y., Park, E., Lee, J., Wan, X., Zhu, S., & Dung, D. T. (2024). The characterization, mechanism, predictability, and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 Southeast Asia heatwave. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7, Article 246. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00797-w
Author
Lyu, Yang
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Zhi, Xiefei
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Wang, Xianfeng
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Zhang, Hugh
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Wen, Yonggang
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Lee, Joshua
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Wan, Xia
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Zhu, Shoupeng
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Tran, Dung Duc
Abstract
In April and May 2023, Southeast Asia (SEA) encountered an exceptional heatwave. The Continental SEA was hardest hit, where all the countries broke their highest temperature records with measurements exceeding 42 °C, and Thailand set the region’s new record of 49 °C. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of this event by investigating its spatiotemporal evolution, physical mechanisms, forecast performance, return period, and extensive impacts. The enhanced high-pressure influenced by tropical waves, moisture deficiency and strong land-atmosphere coupling are considered as the key drivers to this extreme heatwave event. The ECMWF exhibited limited forecast skills for the reduced soil moisture and failed to capture the land-atmosphere coupling, leading to a severe underestimation of the heatwave’s intensity. Although the return period of this heatwave event is 129 years based on the rarity of temperature records, the combination of near-surface drying and soil moisture deficiency that triggered strong positive land-atmosphere feedback and rapid warming was extremely uncommon, with an occurrence probability of just 0.08%. These analyses underscore the exceptional nature of this unparalleled heatwave event and its underlying physical mechanisms, revealing its broad impacts, including significant health repercussions, a marked increase in wildfires, and diminished agricultural yields.
Date Issued
2024
Publisher
Springer
Journal
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Description
The open access publication is available at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00797-w
Project
RP 5/22 WJY
Grant ID
MOET2EP10121-0008
MOET32022-0006
M23L9b0052
Funding Agency
Ministry of Education, Singapore
National Research Foundation, Singapore
National University of Singapore
Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)