Wang, Jingyu

Large-scale sand extraction has had significant and compounding impacts on the riverine environment of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). Yet, effective and targeted implementation of regulations and sustainable management remains hindered by scant data availability, limiting a comprehensive understanding of the delta's sand mining scale and extent. This study assessed recent intensifying patterns of sand mining activities in the VMD mainly based on extensive bathymetric surveys carried out across 800 km² of the VMD river channel from 2017 to 2022. Our results revealed severe riverbed deepening across the VMD, with the upper reaches of the Hau (Bassac) River experiencing an average incision of 1.4 m from 2017 to 2022, resulting in sediment losses of 127 Mm³. Similarly, the upper reaches of the Tien (Mekong) River and the Co Chien branch showed incisions of 1.3 m and 0.7 m from 2017 to 2020, accompanied by sediment losses of 139 Mm³ and 87 Mm³, respectively. The observed spatial and temporal variability in incisions, along with widespread sand mining pockmarks along the riverbed profiles, provide strong evidence of the significant contribution of sand mining to changes in riverbed morphology. The progressive lowering of riverbed elevation provides further evidence of the recent intensification of sand mining activities. Additionally, field surveys highlighted the proximity of perceived sites of bank collapse to pitted riverbeds, providing reliable indications of sand mining-induced erosion. Ultimately, we intend for this evidence-based assessment of sand mining activities in the VMD to contribute to informed quantitative assessments of sediment budgets and effective implementation of regulatory frameworks for sustainable sand mining in the future.

Global sand demand due to infrastructure construction has intensified sand mining activities in many rivers, with current rates of sand extraction exceeding natural replenishment. This has created many environmental problems, particularly concerning riverbank stability, which adversely affects the livelihoods of people in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). However, sand mining’s social impacts in the region remain inadequately understood. Here we assess locals’ perception of sand mining activities in the VMD and its impacts on riverbank erosion. Residents living along the Bassac River, a hotspot of sand mining, were interviewed. Our results showed that while sand mining is perceived as destructive to the environment, few were aware of its role in worsening riverbank erosion. Only residents directly affected by riverbank collapse were aware of the implications of sand mining and its negative effect on bank stability, as they seem to have actively sought clarification. Our findings highlight the need for greater awareness and understanding among the locals regarding sand mining’s impact on riverbank stability.

Reliable Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecasts of precipitation are critical for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, an innovative hybrid method CSG-UNET combining the UNET with the censored and shifted gamma distribution based ensemble model output statistic (CSG-EMOS), is proposed to calibrate the ensemble precipitation forecasts from ECMWF over the China mainland during boreal summer. Additional atmospheric variable forecasts and the data augmentation are also included to deal with the potential issues of low signal-to-noise ratio and relatively small sample sizes in traditional S2S precipitation forecast correction. The hybrid CSG-UNET exhibits a notable advantage over both individual UNET and CSG-EMOS in improving ensemble precipitation forecasts, simultaneously improving the forecast skills for lead times of 1–2 weeks and further extending the effective forecast timeliness to ∼4 weeks. Specifically, the climatology-based Brier Skill Scores are improved by ∼0.4 for the extreme precipitation forecasts almost throughout the whole timescale compared with the ECMWF. Feature importance analyze towards CSG-EMOS model indicates that the atmospheric factors make great contributions to the prediction skill with the increasing lead times. The CSG-UNET method is promising in subseasonal precipitation forecasts and could be applied to the routine forecast of other atmospheric and ocean phenomena in the future.

Climate change-driven sea level rise has intensified salinity intrusion (SI) in deltas worldwide, posing significant threats to the exploitation of freshwater resources. In the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD), the third largest delta globally, SI is a recurring challenge along the coastline, degrading freshwater resources for agricultural and domestic use and affecting socio-economic development. In this paper, we investigate the spatiotemporal extent of salinity intrusion in the Ben Tre Province, the hotspot of salinity disaster within the VMD. Long-term salinity monitoring data (25 years from 1996 to 2020) has been analyzed, and a 1D (Mike 11) coupled with 3D hydrodynamic model (Mike 3) was developed. Three scenarios were used to investigate the freshwater resources exploitation: (i) the year of investigation (2021), (ii) 2021 to 2030 climate change impacts, considering different annual exceedance probability of the upstream Mekong discharge (i.e., average flow, relatively low, low and very low), and (iii) extreme salinity intrusion (i.e., the 2016 condition). Our results indicated that salinity patterns are well-stratified at the beginning and end of the dry season but well-mixed during the middle period. Furthermore, over the last 25 years, SI has progressively increased and started earlier in the dry season. The modeling scenarios for SI have also revealed a growing complexity in the exploitation of freshwater resources, highlighting challenges related to timing, depth, and geographical location. The exceedance probability scenarios disclosed higher and deeper salinity intrusion along the channel in VMD, ranging from 50 % to 95 %. This poses significant limitations on the feasibility of freshwater exploitation throughout the Ben Tre Province. Under the current trajectory of climate change, the 2030 scenario anticipates salinity intrusion reaching further inland from the 2021 scenario. This is likely to exacerbate the existing challenges in freshwater resource exploitation, even with comprehensive water infrastructure. We, therefore, propose several management strategies to adapt to salinity intrusion: storing freshwater in main rivers, maintaining consistent operation of water infrastructure systems, and encouraging water-saving distribution and exploitation methods. Moreover, we also recommend supporting the development of new drought-tolerant crop patterns.

Hail and tornadoes are hazardous weather events responsible for significant property damage and economic loss worldwide. The most devastating occurrences of hail and tornadoes are commonly produced by supercells in the United States. However, these supercells may also grow upscale into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) or be embedded within them. The relationship between hail and tornado occurrences with MCSs in the long-term climatology has not been thoroughly examined. In this study, radar features associated with MCSs are extracted from a 14-year MCS tracking database across the contiguous United States, and hazard reports are mapped to these MCS features. We investigate the characteristics of hail and tornadoes in relation to MCSs, considering seasonal and regional variabilities. On average, 8 %–17 % of hail events and 17 %–32 % of tornado events are associated with MCSs, depending on the criteria used to define MCSs. The highest total and MCS-associated hazard events occur from March to May, while the highest MCS-associated portion (23 % for hail and 45 % for tornadoes) is observed in winter (December–February) due to the dominance of MCSs caused by strong synoptic forcing. As hailstone size increases, the fraction associated with MCS decreases, but there is an increasing trend for tornado severity from EF0 to EF3 (Enhanced Fujita Scale). Violent tornadoes at EF4 and EF5 associated with MCSs were also observed, which are generated by supercells embedded within MCSs.