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Wang, Jingyu
- PublicationMetadata onlyLandscape and social disruption from sand mining and mining-related activities: A case from the Vietnamese Mekong delta
The heavy global demand for sand in various sectors of the economy subjects the Vietnamese Mekong Delta to correspondingly high amounts of sand mining—a process that started in the early 1990s contributing significantly to the Vietnamese economy. The impacts of intensive sand mining and mining-related industries damage the integrity of the river and local communities. Much of the literature focuses on the former, exposing people to the deleterious implications of sand mining on the physical environment. This study aims to fill the gap on the less explored latter through the lenses of place and landscape per human geography tradition, using qualitative methods of thirty-five interviews with locals, video recordings, and sound measurements to highlight the impacts of sand mining and mining-related industries. This study revealed that sand mining and its associated activities are responsible for people’s perceptions of notable air, land, and noise pollution, as well as substantial harm to the urban environment. Over 80 percent of interviewed locals acknowledged the disruptions to their daily lives and a substantial loss of their sense of place. These findings shed light on narratives frequently overlooked by policymakers, emphasizing the urgency of addressing these issues for a sustainable future.
22 - PublicationOpen AccessMachine learning of key variables impacting extreme precipitation in various regions of the contiguous United StatesAmplification in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency can cause severe flooding and impose significant social and economic consequences. Variations in extreme precipitation intensity, frequencies, and return periods can be attributed to many physical variables across spatial and temporal scales. Here we employ ensemble machine learning (ML) methods, namely random forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and artificial neural networks (ANN), to explore key contributing variables to monthly extreme precipitation intensity and frequency in six regions over the United States. We further establish emulators for return periods. Results show that the ML models for intensity perform better in regions with obvious seasonality (i.e., Northern Great Plains, Southern Great Plains, and West Coast) than the other three regions (Northeast, Southwest, and Rocky Mountains), while for frequency the models perform well for most regions. The Shapley additive explanation is used to help explain the relationships between extreme precipitation characteristics and identify top variables for RF and XGB. We find that latent heat flux, relative humidity, soil moisture, and large-scale subsidence are key common variables across the regions for both monthly intensity and frequency, and their compound effects are non-negligible. The developed ML models capture the probability and return period of extreme precipitation well for all regions and may be used for decision making (e.g., infrastructure planning and design).
WOS© Citations 2 49 83 - PublicationMetadata onlyDeadly disasters in southeastern South America: Flash floods and landslides of February 2022 in Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro(European Geosciences Union, 2023)
;Alcantara, Enner ;Marengo, Jose A. ;Mantovani, Jose Roberto ;Londe, Luciana ;Lau, Rachel Yu San; ;Lin, Nina Yunung; ;Mendes, Tatiana Sussel Goncalves ;Cunha, Ana Paula ;Pampuch, Luana ;Seluchi, Marcelo ;Simoes, Silvio ;Cuartas, Luz Adriana ;Goncalves, Demerval ;Massi, Klecia ;Alvala, Regina ;Moraes, Osvaldo ;Filho, Carlos Souza ;Mendes, RodolfoNobre, CarlosOn 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in the highlands of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm), generated by a strongly invigorated mesoscale convective system. It resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis, with 231 fatalities. In this paper, we analyzed the root causes and the key triggering factors of this landslide disaster by assessing the spatial relationship of landslide occurrence with various environmental factors. Rainfall data were retrieved from 1977 to 2022 (a combination of ground weather stations and the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation – CHIRPS). Remotely sensed data were used to map the landslide scars, soil moisture, terrain attributes, line-of-sight displacement (land surface deformation), and urban sprawling (1985–2020). The results showed that the average monthly rainfall for February 2022 was 200 mm, the heaviest recorded in Petrópolis since 1932. Heavy rainfall was also recorded mostly in regions where the landslide occurred, according to analyses of the rainfall spatial distribution. As for terrain, 23 % of slopes between 45–60∘ had landslide occurrences and east-facing slopes appeared to be the most conducive for landslides as they recorded landslide occurrences of about 9 % to 11 %. Regarding the soil moisture, higher variability was found in the lower altitude (842 m) where the residential area is concentrated. Based on our land deformation assessment, the area is geologically stable, and the landslide occurred only in the thin layer at the surface. Out of the 1700 buildings found in the region of interest, 1021 are on the slope between 20 to 45∘ and about 60 houses were directly affected by the landslides. As such, we conclude that the heavy rainfall was not the only cause responsible for the catastrophic event of 15 February 2022; a combination of unplanned urban growth on slopes between 45–60∘, removal of vegetation, and the absence of inspection were also expressive driving forces of this disaster.WOS© Citations 6Scopus© Citations 20 37 - PublicationMetadata onlyUncovering the lack of awareness of sand mining impacts on riverbank erosion among Mekong Delta residents: Insights from a comprehensive survey(Nature Research, 2023)
;Tran, Dung Duc ;Thien, Nguyen Duc ;Yuen, Kai Wen ;Lau, Rachel Yu San; Global sand demand due to infrastructure construction has intensified sand mining activities in many rivers, with current rates of sand extraction exceeding natural replenishment. This has created many environmental problems, particularly concerning riverbank stability, which adversely affects the livelihoods of people in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). However, sand mining’s social impacts in the region remain inadequately understood. Here we assess locals’ perception of sand mining activities in the VMD and its impacts on riverbank erosion. Residents living along the Bassac River, a hotspot of sand mining, were interviewed. Our results showed that while sand mining is perceived as destructive to the environment, few were aware of its role in worsening riverbank erosion. Only residents directly affected by riverbank collapse were aware of the implications of sand mining and its negative effect on bank stability, as they seem to have actively sought clarification. Our findings highlight the need for greater awareness and understanding among the locals regarding sand mining’s impact on riverbank stability.
9 - PublicationOpen AccessSignificant changes in cloud radiative effects over Southwestern United States during the COVID-19 flight reduction periodAircraft-induced clouds (AICs) are one of the most visible anthropogenic atmospheric phenomena, which mimic the natural cirrus clouds and perturb global radiation budget by reducing incoming shortwave (SW) radiation and trapping outgoing longwave (LW) radiation. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a 70 % global decline in flight numbers from mid-March to October 2020, which provided a unique opportunity to examine the climatic impact of AICs. Among various regions, Western Europe and the Contiguous United States experienced the most substantial reduction in air traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic. Interestingly, only the Southwestern United States demonstrated a significant decrease in cirrus clouds, leading to notable changes in shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effects. Such changes were likely due to the reduction in AICs. However, further investigations indicated that this region also experienced abnormal high pressure and low relative humidity in the middle and upper atmosphere, resulting in unusual subsidence and dryness that prohibit the formation and maintenance of cirrus cloud. While it remains challenging to quantify the exact climatic impact of reduced AICs, the remarkable anomalies documented in this study provide valuable observational benchmark for future modelling studies of the climatic impact AICs.
Scopus© Citations 1 64 340 - PublicationMetadata onlyThe characterization, mechanism, predictability, and impacts of the unprecedented 2023 Southeast Asia heatwave(Springer, 2024)
;Lyu, Yang; ;Zhi, Xiefei ;Wang, Xianfeng ;Zhang, Hugh ;Wen, Yonggang; ;Lee, Joshua ;Wan, Xia ;Zhu, ShoupengTran, Dung DucIn April and May 2023, Southeast Asia (SEA) encountered an exceptional heatwave. The Continental SEA was hardest hit, where all the countries broke their highest temperature records with measurements exceeding 42 °C, and Thailand set the region’s new record of 49 °C. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of this event by investigating its spatiotemporal evolution, physical mechanisms, forecast performance, return period, and extensive impacts. The enhanced high-pressure influenced by tropical waves, moisture deficiency and strong land-atmosphere coupling are considered as the key drivers to this extreme heatwave event. The ECMWF exhibited limited forecast skills for the reduced soil moisture and failed to capture the land-atmosphere coupling, leading to a severe underestimation of the heatwave’s intensity. Although the return period of this heatwave event is 129 years based on the rarity of temperature records, the combination of near-surface drying and soil moisture deficiency that triggered strong positive land-atmosphere feedback and rapid warming was extremely uncommon, with an occurrence probability of just 0.08%. These analyses underscore the exceptional nature of this unparalleled heatwave event and its underlying physical mechanisms, revealing its broad impacts, including significant health repercussions, a marked increase in wildfires, and diminished agricultural yields.43 - PublicationMetadata onlyClimatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Hail and tornadoes are hazardous weather events responsible for significant property damage and economic loss worldwide. The most devastating occurrences of hail and tornadoes are commonly produced by supercells in the United States. However, these supercells may also grow upscale into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) or be embedded within them. The relationship between hail and tornado occurrences with MCSs in the long-term climatology has not been thoroughly examined. In this study, radar features associated with MCSs are extracted from a 14-year MCS tracking database across the contiguous United States, and hazard reports are mapped to these MCS features. We investigate the characteristics of hail and tornadoes in relation to MCSs, considering seasonal and regional variabilities. On average, 8 %–17 % of hail events and 17 %–32 % of tornado events are associated with MCSs, depending on the criteria used to define MCSs. The highest total and MCS-associated hazard events occur from March to May, while the highest MCS-associated portion (23 % for hail and 45 % for tornadoes) is observed in winter (December–February) due to the dominance of MCSs caused by strong synoptic forcing. As hailstone size increases, the fraction associated with MCS decreases, but there is an increasing trend for tornado severity from EF0 to EF3 (Enhanced Fujita Scale). Violent tornadoes at EF4 and EF5 associated with MCSs were also observed, which are generated by supercells embedded within MCSs.
Scopus© Citations 1 46 - PublicationEmbargoSignificant advancement in subseasonal-to-seasonal summer precipitation ensemble forecast skills in China mainland through an innovative hybrid CSG-UNET method(IOP Publishing, 2024)
;Lyu, Yang ;Zhu, Shuopeng ;Zhi, Xiefei; ;Ji, Yan ;Fan, YiDong, FuReliable Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecasts of precipitation are critical for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, an innovative hybrid method CSG-UNET combining the UNET with the censored and shifted gamma distribution based ensemble model output statistic (CSG-EMOS), is proposed to calibrate the ensemble precipitation forecasts from ECMWF over the China mainland during boreal summer. Additional atmospheric variable forecasts and the data augmentation are also included to deal with the potential issues of low signal-to-noise ratio and relatively small sample sizes in traditional S2S precipitation forecast correction. The hybrid CSG-UNET exhibits a notable advantage over both individual UNET and CSG-EMOS in improving ensemble precipitation forecasts, simultaneously improving the forecast skills for lead times of 1–2 weeks and further extending the effective forecast timeliness to ∼4 weeks. Specifically, the climatology-based Brier Skill Scores are improved by ∼0.4 for the extreme precipitation forecasts almost throughout the whole timescale compared with the ECMWF. Feature importance analyze towards CSG-EMOS model indicates that the atmospheric factors make great contributions to the prediction skill with the increasing lead times. The CSG-UNET method is promising in subseasonal precipitation forecasts and could be applied to the routine forecast of other atmospheric and ocean phenomena in the future.
Scopus© Citations 2 25 19 - PublicationMetadata onlyInvestigation of springtime cloud influence on regional climate and its implication in runoff decline in upper Colorado River BasinThe subseasonal features of the annual trends of runoff and other associated hydroclimatic variables in the upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) are examined using multiple data sets from in situ observations, reanalysis, and modeling for early spring (February, March, and April), given that about 58% of annual mean runoff decline from 1980 to 2018 stem from its decreases in the three months. Our analysis suggests that the strong annual trends of hydroclimatic variables in March are more statistically significant than other two months. While recent observational studies attribute the decline of runoff for either annual total or cool and warm seasons to regional warming and precipitation decrease, we suggested, for the first time, that a larger decreasing trend of the runoff in March is caused by the declining cloud optical depth which induces further decrease in precipitation and additional increase in temperature on top of climatic warming. The extra warming can reduce available water resource in the basin likely by enhancing evaporation in March. The recent cloud suppression likely results from stronger subsidence and larger moisture flux divergence over southwestern United States because of abnormal circulation patterns in varying climate, in turn leading to drier atmosphere which is unfavorable for cloud formation/development over the UCRB region. The cloud influence on the runoff in March in the UCRB revealed in this study implies the importance of understanding subseasonal variations of hydroclimate in the changing climate, as well as a need of future studies on the response of circulation patterns to climate change at subseasonal level and its implication on local hydroclimate.
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